Hurricane Tracker 2022: Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane in Gulf
Birmingham, Ala.
Ian is presently a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to strengthen into a powerful hurricane by next week in the Gulf of Mexico. Barring any major track shifts, most if not all of the storm’s impact will remain south and east of Alabama. Get the latest updates on Tropics in the video above.
Here’s a discussion of the latest NWS National Hurricane Center forecasts:
By early Sunday, Ian is expected to approach the western side of the ridge, and the storm should turn west-northwestward and then northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ion is forecast to turn north-northwest and northward around the western side of the ridge. As a result, Ian will be sent into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and close to or over western Cuba. Late in the period, the guidance indicates the storm will begin to move back toward Florida.
As mentioned earlier, the track models are in general agreement with this scenario. However, there are a large number of cross-track spreads over 72 hours and beyond.
The east-west spread at 96 hours in the guidance is about 180 nmi, with CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean on the western side. The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly to the west in this cycle, and the NHC track is tilted in this direction and lies just east of the divergent consensus relief. Given the variance in guidance and the still-changing dynamic models, additional adjustments to track forecasts may be required in subsequent advisories.
The seas affecting Ian will continue to decrease over the next day or two while the storm is forecast to move over the warm waters of the central and northwest Caribbean Sea. This should allow for solidification, with stable to rapid intensification (RI) quite possible once the inner core is established. Although the latest NHC forecast is just shy of predicting RI (30 kt or more than a 24-hour increase) during any 24-hour period over the next few days, it is expected to increase between 24 and 72 hours. A 45-kt increase in speed is called for, and since Ian is not expected to remain over Cuba for long, a slight weakening due to land interaction is expected, and the forecast once again has Ian over the eastern Gulf. It appears as a major hurricane as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
IAN key messages
• Ian is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and possible mudslides to high-altitude areas, particularly Jamaica and Cuba.
• By early Monday, the Cayman Islands might experience a hurricane, and by late Sunday, a tropical storm. Jamaica may experience tropical storm-like conditions on Sunday. Early next week, Ian is anticipated to strengthen into a major hurricane near or over western Cuba before making its way toward the Florida peninsula. Storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and considerable rainfall are all possible effects. Residents of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should make sure they have a hurricane plan and an up-to-date weekend prediction even if it is too early to determine the the extent and location of these impacts. attentively observing actions
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Hurricane Fiona.
Hurricane Fiona, now called a post-tropical cyclone, made landfall in Nova Scotia early Saturday, crossing Canada’s Atlantic coast and becoming a “political” weather event for the country. may be
Tropical Storm Ian Live Updates: Sarasota-Manatee residents brace for potential hurricane
2:10 PM|Slight change to Tropical Storm Ian at 2 p.m. NHC Update
There was no surprise for Sarasota and Manatee counties at the 2 p.m. National Hurricane Center Update on Tropical Storm Ian, as the storm’s expected track remains centered just north of the Tampa Bay area.
Ion’s center is anticipated to travel close to the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday morning, and it will also pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday. Then Ian will turn. western Cuba late Monday,” the NHC forecast. will turn and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.”
Ian is also expected to “become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night and may become at or near hurricane strength late Monday as it approaches western Cuba.”
National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Ian’s update at 2 p.m.:
• Location: About 270 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica (14.2 N, 75.8 W).
• Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
• Motion: W at 16 mph
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB
• Next update at 5 p.m.
The governor signed a modified executive order on Saturday afternoon that stated that “the threat presented by Tropical Storm Ian necessitates immediate preventive steps to protect communities, essential infrastructure, and the general well-being of Florida.”1:55 p.m Gov. The emergency was extended by Ron DeSantis. Hurricane Tracker 2022
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Saturday extended a “state of emergency” to all 67 Florida counties to prepare for Tropical Storm Ian, which is expected to become Hurricane Ian in the coming days.
Ken Paquin, 70, wiped the sweat from his brow before hauling two more bags into his trunk.
Tropical Storm Ian: Find all our latest coverage of the storm here.
Hurricane Guide: What You Need to Know Before a Big Storm Hits
The Rhode Island native said it was his first hurricane since moving to the area 10 years ago. Although he has experienced some tropical hurricanes, nothing like this.
“It is what it is,” Paquin said. You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do. “
Maria Diaz, 48, also filled her car with sandbags. Although she, her sister, and her mother live apart, they plan to ride out the storm together. Although they have plenty of food, water, and flashlights, Diaz feels that prayer is the most important form of preparation. Hurricane Tracker 2022
“The first thing I do is pray a lot because everything is under God’s control,” Diaz said.
12:45 PM | Want a generator? This storm may have passed its prime.
Herald Tribune political editor Zach Anderson went looking for generators this afternoon and had no luck as some might have predicted. Several Home Depot and Lowe’s locations have already sold out.
Other supplies seem to be in better supply: informal reports suggest you can get gas at many stations without waiting, and water is still available at many stores.
11:00 a.m. | Tropical Storm Ian’s track is moving north, with stronger storms expected.
According to an 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Ian’s track has changed somewhat, with its center now joining Florida north of the Tampa Bay area.
The change comes as the NHC raises its forecast for Tropical Storm Ian’s intensity, promising a rapid transition and an increase in strength for Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Tracker 2022
The NHC forecast track has been upgraded from the previous one, which showed Ian strengthening into a hurricane by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major hurricane by Monday night, according to the NHC.”When Ian hits the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, it is predicted to grow into a major storm. West Florida coast.”
Tropical Storm Ian: Find all our latest coverage of the storm here.
Hurricane Guide: What You Need to Know Before a Big Storm Hits
Currently, tropical storm-force winds extend 60 miles outward from the center of Tropical Storm Ian. Winds of a tropical storm could reach the Sarasota-Manatee region as early as Tuesday morning.
11 a.m. update:
Approximately 270 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica (14.4 N, 75.2 W).
• Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
• Motion: W at 15 mph
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB
• Next update at 2 p.m.
8:00 am | The latest update on Tropical Storm Ian from the National Hurricane Center
Little changed in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. update on Tropical Storm Ian. The storm’s track is still centered in the Sarasota-Manatee area and is forecast to impact Florida as Hurricane Ian late Wednesday or early Thursday.
According to the NHC, Tropical Storm Ian is expected to continue moving toward the west/northwest until early Sunday, then turn toward the north-northwest by late Monday. It will likely pass near Jamaica on Sunday, pass near or over the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and then approach western Cuba on Monday. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are both under a tropical storm watch.
5:00 am | Tropical Storm Ian’s track is centered over the Sarasota-Manatee area.
According to a 5 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to strengthen, with Sarasota and Manatee counties in the center of its projected path. Hurricane Tracker 2022
Around eleven o’clock, the former tropical depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian. Friday and sustained winds are now gusting at 45 mph. The NHC predicts the storm will reach hurricane strength by late Sunday.
The National Hurricane Core (NHC) forecasts that Tropical Storm Ian’s center will “advance across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday.”
If current forecasts hold, the storm will hit Florida’s Sarasota-Manatee area as Hurricane Ian late Wednesday or early Thursday. It is forecast to become a major hurricane-with wind of up to 110 mph-when it hits the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico after passing over Cuba.
Tropical Storm Ian, 5 a.m. update
• Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
• Motion: West at 14 mph
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB
Will Hurricane Ian hit Sarasota-Manatee?
Although Tropical Storm Ian is not expected to become Hurricane Ian until late Sunday or early Monday, most forecast models show it affecting Florida near Sarasota and Manatee counties. Forecasters warn that it is still too unknown to rely on storm track projections. Hurricane Tracker 2022
Christine Pierce, a meteorologist of the NWS Tampa, stated that “the course is still somewhat unknown.” “In the early stages, the storm’s center sinks.” ” Even the direction of its shift toward Florida is not certain to us.
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